How to Use Sports Analytics to Make a Profit in Gambling

Are you looking to be profitable in sports gambling?

Well here are some tips and tricks from Bob Stoll, the man behind Dr. Bob Sports, whom has been using football numbers for over twenty years to provide winning picks.

1.     Be weary about using a regression model on football statistics to predict the future.

Some statistics don’t predict the future because their early season values don’t strongly correlate with late season values and weak correlation implies randomness not skill.

2.     It’s remarkable how simple division can make a world of difference in the meaning of numbers.

Rush yards per game is a silly statistic since teams like Georgia Tech run the ball almost every down while teams like Houston barely run the ball. But when you divide those total yards by the number of rush attempts, it becomes a lot more meaningful. Comparing the pass yards per attempt for an offense against the pass yards allowed per attempt by an opposing defense allows for analysis of how the teams match up.

3.     Use compensated statistics that account for strength of schedule instead of raw numbers.

If Oregon and Rutgers rush for 3.6 and 4.0 yards per carry respectively, you might assume that Rutgers has the better rushing offense. But Rutgers put up those numbers against defense that gave up 4.2 yards per carry. Oregon earned those yards against defenses that allowed 3.4 yards per carry. Relatively, Oregon rushed for more yards per attempt than the opposing defenses, while Rutgers didn’t.  Research over tens of thousands of games shows that Oregon will outrush Rutgers against an average defense.

4.     Account for injuries.

Research shows that cornerbacks are more important than linebackers. In the 2011 NFL season, some defenses performed just fine without a star linebacker but crumbled without an average cornerback.


Paige Stanard